Rafal Weron

Wrocław University of Science and Technology · Poland

Unclaimed · AI-structured profileOpenAlex

Electricity price forecasting researcher: forecast reconciliation, foundation models, and battery-storage arbitrage.

papers here

reviewed by Evolve

first-author

corresponding

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works · OpenAlex

h-index · OpenAlex

Bibliometric figures come from OpenAlex (2026-10-17) and cover the author's entire public record, not just the papers listed here. Reproducibility signal comes from Evolve's own reviews.

Research profile

Output—

Output is not scored: volume metrics for this identity are absent from the snapshot, and h-/i10-index resolve to zero. This axis would measure total publication count, per-year output distribution, and output share by venue or source type.

Impact—

Impact is not scored: citation-based measures are unavailable — h-index and i10-index both resolve to 0 in this OpenAlex snapshot, likely reflecting incomplete attribution rather than absence of influence. This axis would measure citations, citation velocity, and downstream uptake.

Focus100/100

Focus scores 100/100. All four indexed topics are forecasting-centric — Energy Load and Power Forecasting (3), Stock Market Forecasting Methods (3), Forecasting Techniques and Applications (2), and Smart Grid Energy Management (1) — and the field distribution lists a single field, energy economics / electricity price forecasting. Both 2026 reviewed papers are electricity-price-forecasting studies, indicating a tightly concentrated research agenda.

Collaboration22/100

Collaboration scores 22/100. The snapshot records only 2 distinct coauthors in the recent window, with Arkadiusz Lipiecki and Nikolaos Kourentzes as frequent collaborators. On both 2026 reviewed papers he appears in the last author position, a pattern consistent with senior supervision of a small, stable team rather than a large rotating consortium.

Activity40/100

Activity scores 40/100. The snapshot's counts-by-year show 1 work in 2025 and 2 in 2026, with 3 works over the recent three-year window — a modest but rising trajectory concentrated in the current year. All counts derive from OpenAlex identity resolution, so arXiv preprints and journal versions may overlap or be under-counted.

Reproducibility55/100

Reproducibility scores 55/100, computed from 1 assessed paper (mean readiness 55). Both reviewed 2026 papers carry medium reproducibility readiness: the foundation-model study runs a documented five-year, three-market evaluation, while the spread-based THieF paper shares no code and its BESS test is judged stylized. The evidence base is thin — a single paper — so treat the score as provisional.

Research summary

Rafał Weron is profiled here from public bibliographic data (OpenAlex) and two 2026 papers reviewed by Evolve, affiliated with Wrocław University of Science and Technology in Poland. The resolved topic profile is forecasting-centric: Energy Load and Power Forecasting (3), Stock Market Forecasting Methods (3), Forecasting Techniques and Applications (2), and Smart Grid Energy Management (1), with reviewed work assigned to energy economics / electricity price forecasting. Both catalog papers carry him in the last author position. One extends THieF temporal-hierarchy reconciliation with direct spread forecasts for day-ahead electricity markets; the other stress-tests zero-shot foundation models for electricity price forecasting across three markets and five years of data, connecting probabilistic forecasts to battery energy storage arbitrage. Evolve judges both technically rigorous but flags stylized battery tests and unshared code, giving each a medium reproducibility readiness (snapshot reproducibility mean 55 from one assessed paper). The snapshot records 3 works in the last three years and 2 distinct coauthors, with Arkadiusz Lipiecki and Nikolaos Kourentzes as frequent collaborators. Citation aggregates resolve to zero, so impact is left unscored; read this as a focused, recent-output view of an electricity-price-forecasting researcher rather than a full career record.

Collaboration pattern

Collaboration is concentrated: the snapshot lists 2 distinct coauthors, with Arkadiusz Lipiecki and Nikolaos Kourentzes as frequent collaborators. On both 2026 arXiv papers he sits in the last author position (not corresponding), consistent with a senior supervisory role over a small, stable team pairing a junior co-author with an established forecasting methodologist. The low collaboration score (22/100) reflects this narrow recent network rather than an absence of partnerships.

Research keywords

electricity price forecastingforecast reconciliationtemporal hierarchiesTHieFprice spreadsbattery energy storage arbitragefoundation modelszero-shot forecastingprobabilistic forecastingCRPSenergy load forecastingsmart grid energy management

Highlights

Spread-based temporal hierarchies enter day-ahead forecasting
As last author on this 2026 arXiv paper, he joins work adding direct spread forecasts to THieF temporal-hierarchy reconciliation for day-ahead electricity prices. Evolve finds the gains consistent but calls the BESS arbitrage test stylized and notes no code is shared; reproducibility readiness is medium.
Foundation models face a five-year, three-market stress test
This 2026 arXiv zero-shot study, with him as last author, evaluates general-purpose foundation models against established electricity price forecasting benchmarks across three markets and five years of data; only TabPFN beats the benchmarks statistically, and BESS arbitrage value hinges on risk appetite. Reproducibility readiness: medium.
Battery-storage arbitrage as the shared evaluation lens
Across both reviewed 2026 papers, forecast quality is ultimately judged by battery energy storage arbitrage value; Evolve cautions in both cases that this economic test is stylized and sensitive to risk appetite — a recurring caveat for the group's evaluation methodology.

Timeline

2025OpenAlex counts 1 work for this identity in 2025 — the earliest year in the snapshot's by-year record.
2026Evolve reviews the spread-based temporal hierarchy paper for day-ahead electricity markets (arXiv; last author), one of 2 works counted for 2026.
2026Foundation models are tested against dedicated electricity price forecasting benchmarks and battery arbitrage in the second reviewed arXiv paper (last author).

Papers in the Evolve catalog

Frequent co-authors

Arkadiusz Lipiecki×2 Nikolaos Kourentzes×1

About this profile

This profile is AI-structured by Evolve.Pub from public bibliographic data (OpenAlex) and Evolve's own paper reviews. It is not written or endorsed by the researcher unless the profile is claimed. Radar dimensions are computed from real bibliometrics with fixed formulas — raw figures are shown alongside; missing dimensions mean insufficient data, never zero. Errors? Claim the profile to correct or hide it.

Bibliometric metrics come from an OpenAlex identity snapshot only; no ORCID is linked, and citation aggregates (h-index 0, i10-index 0) likely reflect incomplete name resolution rather than actual impact.
Publication counts (2025: 1, 2026: 2) come from the same snapshot and may double-count arXiv preprints and their journal versions.
The reproducibility score rests on a single assessed paper (reproPapers = 1) and should be read as an early-stage signal.
Coverage is limited to recent activity visible in this snapshot; no career-history, award, or identity-verification data was available.